Forecasting Co2 Mitigation and Policy Options for China's Key Sectors in 2010–2030

Abstract

The technological status of seven key sub-sectors in three sectors (energy, industry and consumption) was analysed using bottom-up modelling. Using 2010 as a baseline, the paper predicts direct CO2 emission trends, turning points, reduction potentials and costs for the three sectors in two policy scenarios and three technology scenarios for the years 2015, 2020 and 2030. The scenario analysis shows that the industry sector might reach its emissions peak between 2015 and 2020, which leaves more emission reduction potential for the consumption sector. CO2 emissions in the consumption sector will increase through to 2030 without reaching a turning point. In the Social Low Control Middle (SL-CM) scenario, CO2 reduction technology potentials of the industry and consumption sectors will reach 0.84 billion tonnes CO2-eq by 2020. Within this, production contributes 13% of reductions, transportation 48%, and construction 39%. In the 2030SL-CM-scenario, the CO2 reduction potentials rise to 1.6 billion tonnes CO2-eq, within which production contributes 8%, transportation 44% and construction 48%. In building China's Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), the government should pay more attention to a low carbon consumption policy rather than a traditional CO2 control policy for the industrial sector.