Challenges to Phasing out Fossil Fuels as the Major Source of the World's Energy

Abstract

Energy-related data for China, India, the United States, and the world were analyzed for the period 2005–2035 to gain insight on (1) the evolution of energy intensity, (2) the pattern of carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2) emitted per unit of GDP, (3) reductions in the carbon intensity required to achieve CO2 emissions comparable to the 1990 Kyoto Protocol's baseline year, (4) key obstacles to transitioning to a world's economy less dependent on fossil fuels. Key findings are: (1) the world's total primary energy use is expected to increase by 56% in the period 2005–2035, (2) the world's rate of GDP growth outpaces its rate of increase in energy use because of a decrease in the energy/GDP ratio, (3) the world's carbon intensity in 2035 must undergo a near 4-fold reduction to achieve emissions equal to those of 1990, (4) there are major obstacles to transitioning to a world much less reliant on fossil fuels.