COVID-19, Australia: Epidemiology Report 19 (Fortnightly reporting period ending 21 June 2020)

Abstract

Notified cases of COVID-19 and associated deaths reported to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) to 21 June 2020. Confirmed cases in Australia notified up to 7 June 2020: notifications = 7,491; deaths = 102. Over the past fortnightly reporting period, the number of new cases in most Australian states remains low; however, an increase in locally-acquired cases is observed for Victoria. Testing rates continue to be high across all jurisdictions, with the nationwide positivity rate remaining very low at less than 0.1%. The incidence of COVID-19 has markedly reduced since a peak in mid-March (Figure 1). A combination of early case identification, physical distancing, public health measures and a reduction in international travel have been effective in slowing the spread of disease in Australia. Of the 215 cases notified between 8 and 21 June, 75% (163 cases) were notified from Victoria. Most of these cases were acquired locally, in contrast with cases notified from other states (NSW, Qld and WA) where most new cases have been overseas-acquired. Of locally-acquired cases in Victoria in this period, 54% were associated with contacts of a confirmed case or in a known outbreak, while 46% were unable to be linked to another case. In response, the Victorian Government has re-introduced restrictions for household and outdoor gatherings and has delayed plans to ease other restrictions. A small proportion of overall cases have experienced severe disease, requiring hospitalisation or intensive care, with some fatalities. The crude case fatality rate amongst Australian cases is 1.4%. People who are older and have one or more comorbidities are more likely to experience severe disease. The highest rate of COVID-19 continues to be among people aged 65–79 years. Three-quarters of all cases in this age group have been associated with overseas travel, including several outbreaks linked to cruise ships. The lowest rate of disease is in children under 18 years, a pattern reflected in international reports. Internationally, as of 21 June 2020, the largest numbers of both cases and deaths have been reported in the United States. Of the confirmed cases reported globally, the case fatality rate is approximately 5.3%. Other countries in the Americas region, such as Brazil and Chile, are seeing rapid growth in case numbers. Case numbers in Europe remain relatively steady, while there is significant growth in the South East Asia region, including in India and Bangladesh. Reported cases are increasing in Africa, although the numbers are much smaller. In the Pacific there are few new cases reported daily.