Speed development at freeway curves based on high frequency floating car data

Abstract

Road designers need to have insights where deceleration and acceleration are expected related to the position of the curve, and in in which amount so that drivers are able to safely decelerate and accelerate respectively into and out of a freeway curve. For this, empirical speed data is needed. Therefore, Floating Car Data in 153 curves in The Netherlands were collected at a resolution of 1 Hz and were filtered on free-flow periods, to analyse over 800 thousand unique continuous free-flow speed observations on these curves. Regression models were developed to predict speed development, including deceleration and acceleration behaviour upon entering and exiting freeway curves. The models rely on easy to generate geometric design variables, including the start and end position of the horizontal curve, the horizontal radius and the number of lanes. Using these variables, the designer can predict the speed development based on the 85th percentile of speed and acceleration, relative to the position of the curve. The regression models reveal strong goodness-of-fit of the predicted 85th percentiles of speed in a curve, showing acceleration and deceleration inside the curve, and higher predicted 85th percentile speeds than the design speeds. The models also show satisfying results in speed development prediction in sets of consecutive curves with different characteristics, as well as deceleration when entering a first curve and acceleration when exiting a last curve. These insights are valuable in evaluating road design in relation to traffic safety based on its predicted use.