Temperature-based Climate Projections of Pinot noir Suitability in the Willamette Valley American Viticultural Area

Abstract

In this study, we consider the complete archive of the 32 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) daily Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled historic datasets and their observational data that were used for downscaling and bias corrections to develop an ensemble that optimises calculation of the growing season average temperature (GST) viticulture climate classification index throughout the Willamette Valley (WV) American Viticultural Area (AVA). Ensemble directed spatiotemporal calculations, using LOCA CMIP5 historic and RCP4.5 future datasets of minimum and maximum daily temperature, were performed throughout the WV AVA for the GST index and Pinot noir specific applications of the grapevine sugar ripeness (GSR) model at a 220 g/L target sugar concentration. The GST index and GSR model evaluations were calculated on a mean decadal basis from the 1950s to the 2090s for the WV AVA. The GST index and GSR model calculations both revealed a warming trend with time for the WV AVA. A 3.1 °C increase in the GST index is predicted from the 1950s to the 2090s. The GSR model indicated a rate advance of 2.9 days a decade from the 1960s to the 2080s. However, the application of the GST index and the GSR model portray markedly different characterisations about the suitability of Pinot noir throughout the WV AVA with time. A strong invertible relationship between the GST index and GSR model calculations is observed and exploited to update the Pinot noir specific lower and upper bounds (14.8 °C, 17.6 °C) for the GST index throughout the WV AVA. Pinot noir specific applications of the GSR model or the GST index with updated bounds indicate that the percent of the WV AVA area suitable for Pinot noir production is currently at or near its peak value in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.