In Anticipation of New Migration Crises

Abstract

The concept of resilience has been commonly recognized as a new leitmotif of security governance in the European Union. In the aftermath of the so-called ‘migration crisis’, resilience has spilled over migration and border management, promoting the notions of resilient Schengen and broadly understood technologization of border management, to name a few. This trend has been only strengthened during the COVID-19 pandemic and the most recent border and refugee crises on the EU eastern border, which have mainstreamed the notions of anticipation, preparedness, and the ability to withstand shocks and disturbances external to the EU as a whole. Building on these developments, this article discusses how anticipatory governance interlocks with resilience within the newly proposed EU migration crisis management framework. In doing so, it provides a more nuanced picture of the EU’s post-2015 and 2016 approach to human mobility, asylum, and border protection. Such a take will also allow us to see how exactly the EU has adapted to new migratory circumstances, while conceptualizing the uncertainties related to increased migratory flows and operationalizing specific anticipatory and resilience-centered policy responses.