Forecast development of housing provision for the urban population in the context of economic transformation of the Kyrgyz Republic

Abstract

The relationship between urban housing policy and demographic trends in the cities of Kyrgyzstan is of paramount importance for sustainable urban development. This study focuses on Bishkek and Osh, the two largest cities in Kyrgyzstan, where more than 60% of the urban population lives. Using correlation analysis, we examine the relationship between demographic factors and housing construction indicators. The purpose of the work is to determine the degree of relationship between indicators of the provision of housing space and demographic trends in the city. Also, based on the identified correlation, the forecast development of the dynamics of development of the urban population, housing stock and housing supply ratio is given. Our results highlight the need for holistic public housing and population policies that promote mutual growth of urban population and housing stock. Through historical analysis and future projections, we advocate for a unified strategic urban development plan that takes housing and demographics into account. At the same time, the private enterprise sector is an important factor in the development of the housing stock. Key indicators studied in the work include the size of the urban population, growth dynamics, the commissioning of new housing space, the housing stock and the provision of housing per capita. This study contributes to the formulation of effective policies to address the housing needs of urban populations in the face of changing demographics.