The impact of global climate change on migration in the Russian Federation and Central Asian countries

Abstract

Global climate change has a dramatic impact on the environment, transforming the conditions of human life and economic activities, which affects migration patterns as well. Climatic conditions have always played a crucial role in population distribution in Russia. Today, the impact of severe climatic regime of the Northern Russian territories is becoming increasingly aggravated with the negative effects of the global climate change, spurring up the population outflow from such strategically important regions as the Far North, Siberia, and the Far East. This study aims at estimating the role of environmental factors in this process on the basis of analysis of statistical data on the distribution of migrants by reasons for resettlement. Results of the analysis proved that climatic conditions are a powerful push/pull factor of internal migration in Russia; hence, as the climate change progresses, the population outflow especially from the Russian North is likely to become more intense. On the other hand, the climate change has already become a serious problem for Central Asian countries, creating risks for food security, water supply and energy systems there. Gradual environmental deterioration provokes socio-economic crises which force the population of vulnerable areas to migrate in search of livelihood sustainability. The majority of such migrants resettle within their countries, but a part is likely to move to Russia following the traditional labor migration patterns. Our preliminary estimates show that by 2050Russia is going to get additionally up to 120,000 migrants from Central Asia in total. In the authors' opinion this trend should be considered as positive both from the point of view of a contribution to the population of Russia, and from the point of view of Central Asian population's adaptation to the climate change.