Fertility differentiation according to female education levels in Russia: current situation and forecast scenarios

Abstract

This paper analyzes the differentiation of birth rates of Russia women by education levels. Two levels are specified: 1) complete and incomplete higher education; 2) secondary professional education and below). First of all, the mean number of children born in real cohorts is calculated for each of the two education levels. For this, we use the micro-databases of the 2010 census and the 2015 micro-census. The data of the Sample Survey of the Reproductive Plans of Population are used additionally (including in the construction of age models of fertility). We estimate mean numbers of children born in one-year age groups in real cohorts by female education levels at 1.5 for women with complete and incomplete higher education and 1.8 for women with secondary professional education and below. Based on the obtained estimates and the analyzed data, we construct three forecast scenarios of the future dynamics of fertility rates for two levels of education. In our opinion, mean number of children born to real cohorts of women will likely stay the same for both education levels, as will the age-related fertility model — so this scenario is considered as the basic and the most likely one. The forecast scenario of mean number of children dropping to the lowest values that were observed in real cohorts of women of the 1960s — the first half of the 1970s is considered as a low variant. In determining the high variant of the forecast scenario we take into account the data on the expected and desired number of children among women with different education levels. Finally, we proceed to calculate the mean numbers of children born in real cohorts by female education levels according to each of the three forecast scenarios up till the cohort of women born in 2035, who will enter their reproductive age in 2050.