Demographic projections and accuracy of the spatial development statistics of Siberia and Far East of Russia

Abstract

The subject of the research is spatial development statistics (as a system of indicators of regional analysis and management) on the example of the Siberian and Far East Federal districts. The correlation of the indices of migration and the state of the infrastructure deficit of these districts is considered. The importance of a qualitative change in the system of placement of population and productive forces in the country (in accordance with the adopted and agreed economic model) for the creation of an internationally competitive network of settlements is emphasized. The relevance of this topic, which characterizes qualitative territorial planning and sustainable-safe spatial development at the level of federal districts of Russia (as established macro-regions) and their constituent entities, is due to several key factors. First, the territory, being itself a complex subject of research, involves development and use of a significant number of statistical metrics for a comprehensive assessment, systematization and current management organization of spatial development potentials. Secondly, it becomes possible to unify coordination of macro-regional and interregional planning, interconnection of sectoral plans, and development of recommendations for formation of long-term tariffs. Thirdly, on the basis of such indicators, there is predicted the basis of the qualitative changes, which are fixed both in strategies, targeted and regional programs, and resettlement schemes at the federal and regional (in the long term, macro-regional) levels. At the same time, primarily because of the extremely high price of managerial errors, there is a practical need for correct forecasting activities, studying best practices and finding consensus, especially in demographic projections as the basis for further long-term planning. The findings of the study can be used in further research at the national and interregional levels.