In-work Poverty in Russia: How Determinants Have Changed over the 20 years?

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of in-work poverty and estimates the probability of falling into poverty for various groups of the Russian population in 1998 and 2018. Drawing from the representative RLMS HSE cross-sections, we showed that, despite a large-scale reduction in Russian poverty in 1998–2018, the ratio of structural and individual determinants did not change substantially. At the same time, the configuration of structural determinants has changed. In 2018, personal efforts became less crucial in reducing the likelihood of falling into poverty; the job characteristics and settlement inequalities have become eventually prominent. By 2018, women and rural residents were at the highest chance of poverty, although in 1998, men and a predominantly urban population were at risk. The long-term conservation of “bad” jobs in routine labour and the unequal distribution of the gains from de-industrialization between urban and rural areas over the past two decades are seen as the main explanations for the nature of Russian in-work poverty.