Statistical patterns of theory uncertainties
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Published:2023-06-20
Issue:2
Volume:6
Page:
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ISSN:2666-9366
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Container-title:SciPost Physics Core
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language:
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Short-container-title:SciPost Phys. Core
Author:
Ghosh Aishik12,
Nachman Benjamin13,
Plehn Tilman4,
Shire Lily2,
Tait Tim M. P.2,
Whiteson Daniel2
Affiliation:
1. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
2. University of California, Irvine
3. University of California, Berkeley
4. Heidelberg University
Abstract
A comprehensive uncertainty estimation is vital for the precision program of the LHC. While experimental uncertainties are often described by stochastic processes and well-defined nuisance parameters, theoretical uncertainties lack such a description. We study uncertainty estimates for cross-section predictions based on scale variations across a large set of processes. We find patterns similar to a stochastic origin, with accurate uncertainties for processes mediated by the strong force, but a systematic underestimate for electroweak processes. We propose an improved scheme, based on the scale variation of reference processes, which reduces outliers in the mapping from leading order to next-to-leading-order in perturbation theory.
Funder
Baden-Württemberg Stiftung
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
National Science Foundation
United States Department of Energy
Publisher
Stichting SciPost
Subject
Statistical and Nonlinear Physics,Atomic and Molecular Physics, and Optics,Nuclear and High Energy Physics,Condensed Matter Physics
Cited by
1 articles.
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