Trade Pattern of Indian Basmati Rice: A Markov Chain Approach

Abstract

The present study was undertaken to study the trade dynamics of basmati rice using the Markov-Chain approach. The findings indicated that the most unstable market during the first period was Iraq and the USA, and in the second period, was the USA, respectively, with zero probability retention. The projected export share of major importing countries indicated that the UAE, the Yemen Republic, and Saudi Arabia were likely to increase their export share. At the same time, Iran is expected to lose its share in Indian Basmati rice exports in the coming years. However, India has retained its original import markets and explored new markets as a comparative advantage. In order to sustain itself in the global market, the Government should focus on improving export infrastructure facilities.