Forecasting of Area, Production and Productivity of Wheat crop in Madhya Pradesh

Abstract

This study will indubitably benefit the farmers, policymakers and stakeholders by delivering accurate forecast information of Madhya Pradesh and India. Forecasting is the primary method to predict wheat production in order to identify the situation and determine the value of production for the following year while minimizing production risk. This study used the ARIMA Model to predict wheat crop area, production, and yield in India and Madhya Pradesh. Model fitting and forecasting up to 2026 were carried out annual data from 1960 to 2020. This model's forecasting performance was selected based on its lowest AIC, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and maximum R values. Furthermore, the instability research revealed that while India had overall low instability, Madhya 2 Pradesh had high instability in terms of area, production, and yield compared to Period-I (1960 to 1990). Moreover, this research will aid in formulating effective policies regarding wheat production.