Agrarian potential of Ukraine under post-Maidan crisis and armed conflict: factors and patterns of regional unevenness

Abstract

Problem Statement. Regional socio-economic development is characterized by diversity and multifacetedness and is stipulated with different impacts of factors. Ukraine has a pronounced spatial asymmetry of socio-economic development of regions; therefore, it is an important case for study of various components of regional unevenness. In the present context of post-Maidan crisis and armed conflict, study of uneven development of agrarian potential in Ukraine is becoming increasingly important, whereas it is important to assess and monitor the agrarian potential of regions for economic and food security of the country and regions. Research Methodology. The research focuses on assessment of the agrarian potential development of Ukraine’s regions in 2015 and 2018, rather than on an empirical comparison of the agrarian potential development of regions before and during the post-Maidan crisis and armed conflict. A hierarchical model for assessing the development of the agrarian potential of Ukraine's regions has been elaborated. Based on the factor analysis results, the individual influence of each factor on the development of the agrarian potential of regions was determined. Using the method of ranking and Kohonen Self-Organizing Mapping, the changes in the uneven development of the agrarian potential of Ukraine’s regions during the post-Maidan crisis and armed conflict period were investigated, and the trajectories of the development of this potential were revealed. This paper aims to identify the regional patterns of agrarian potential development and determine the factors that influenced its regional unevenness during the post-Maidan crisis and armed conflict. Results. The research results prove a spatial asymmetry and an increase in regional divergence in the agrarian potential development. The impact of socio-economic and production factors was revealed to grow and the impact of natural resources and macroeconomic factors on the agrarian potential development of the regions was revealed to weaken. The trajectories of agrarian potential development of the regions are determined; they are typified in nine types of trajectories of the agrarian potential development of the regions of Ukraine during the post-Maidan crisis and armed conflict. Recommendations are given on the regional policy in the agrarian sector of Ukraine in order to mitigate the uneven development of agrarian potential in the regions. Given that Ukraine is facing the problem of inconsistency of the institutional environment with the needs of agropotential development, it is very important to implement the institutional transformations, which should focus on harmonization of state and regional policy for the agrarian sector with EU principles.