THE ROLE OF AGENT-BASED MODELING AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS IN POLITICAL SCIENCE

Abstract

It considers opportunities for using computer agent-based modeling in studies related to political process analyses. Gives information about the historical context of computer simulation based on agent model implementation, and emphasizes the significance of T. Shelling and R. Axelrod models. It is noted usefulness of this method is applied to complex dynamic system analysis, wherein participants have complex interconnections, and their behavior depends on the situation. Gives information about an agent-based model's main elements, especially space and agents, and describes what they can represent. Draws attention to the importance of the researcher’s study goal understanding using this approach, which in turn affects the model parameters setting that determines model will be abstract, realistic, or mixed. Considered opportunities applying agent-based modeling for the course of social and political processes forecasting, and showed the opinion of other researchers on this issue. Provides examples of ten studies related to the analysis of various political processes, the authors of which applied this approach and their own agent models with different realism levels. Shows possibilities applied of computer simulations for forecasting the results of future and reproducing the results of past elections, evaluating election campaign strategies, the emergence of ideological polarization, modeling political discourse, evaluating the effectiveness of implemented policies, analyzing the risks of social instability in the state under the influence of external and internal factors. It is concluded that agent-based modeling can be a helpful tool in the hands of political scientists and noted that the use of this approach significantly expands the possibilities for analyzing complex political processes.