Temporary trends and factors of birth rate in Ukraine: regional dimension

Abstract

The demographic problem is surprisingly acute for Ukraine. Research trends factors and structural and dynamic features of birth rate will allow determining socio-economic and demographic trends, including their variations across regions. The purpose of the article is to establish regional features of modern trends and factors of fertility in Ukraine in the 21st century. The article presents an analysis of the dynamics of the birth rate in Ukraine based on the analysis of official statistics. Periods of minimum and maximum values have been established taking into account the leading factors and differences by type of settlements. The characteristics of changes in the sex-age structure of the population of Ukraine and the age-related fertility rate in the context of leading factors and differences by types of settlements are given. Based on the standardization of demographic coefficients, the degree of influence of internal factors affecting the birth rate in the regions of Ukraine was determined. A significant share of births in older fertility groups was identified, which confirms the trends of the second demographic transition, the spread of the phenomenon of "late motherhood" and the so-called "pro-European" model of reproductive behavior, which is more characteristic of highly urbanized regions of Ukraine. On the basis of cluster analysis, regional peculiarities of trends and factors of fertility in Ukraine in the 21st century were revealed, as a result, five clusters were identified. The first cluster includes the capital. The second cluster includes Zakarpattya, Rivne, and Volyn regions, which have the most lively demographic behavior of the population and the preservation of traditional factors. The third cluster united Kharkiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The fourth cluster is represented by Odesa, Lviv, Chernivtsi and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. The fifth cluster includes Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Ternopil, Kyiv, Kherson, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, and Vinnytsia regions. Thus, internal territorial differences in the birth rate, in terms of regions of Ukraine, as well as urban and rural areas, are the result of the action of external and internal factors that had an impact during the studied period and were reflected in the course of demographic processes.