Anticipatory Management as an Effective Concept for the Development and Implementation of Ukraine's Post-War Recovery Policy

Abstract

The question of the relevance and objective necessity of introducing anticipatory management in the activities of enterprises and other entities as a concept aimed at predicting and early response to external manifestations of a threatening nature in the conditions of increasing uncertainty of processes in the market and in society in general is considered. The general content of these issues was considered with a projection on the problematics of developing and implementing the post-war recovery policy of Ukraine. The objective need for the concept of anticipatory management is explained by the fact that society has fully entered a stage of development characterized by the predominance of unpredictability and chaotic manifestations of market and social processes over consumer-producer relations in the market, which will fully reflect the state of the economy in the process of Ukraine's Post-War Recovery. The problem of advancing anticipatory management to managerial practice is connected with the need to develop tools and technology for its application. In the system of monitoring and analysis of the state of enterprise activity, it is necessary to introduce the application of the category of the general indicator of enterprise activity, capable of reacting most sensitively to manifestations of external factors of a threatening nature. In order to observe threatening phenomena in the environment of the functioning of enterprises, it is necessary to establish their weak signals as early predictors of the emergence of threats in the future, as well as the expected duration of the process of their accumulation up to their maximum possible value, the achievement of which leads to significant losses of the enterprise, which can be considered as a state of its crisis, and even catastrophe - in case of forced suspension of the enterprise activity. A crucial component of the implementation of the anticipatory approach is the introduction of the concept and determination in time of the bifurcation point, that is, the extreme moment of the adoption of anti-crisis measures, the effect of which manages to prevent the development of a crisis in the enterprise. It is schematically shown that, given the data on the duration of the process of introducing anti-crisis measures, the bifurcation point on the time axis is determined by delaying the time of the introduction of anti-crisis measures to the left from the expected moment of the crisis.