Fractal Basis of Multiplicative Processes in the Investment Sphere

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop a model describing the spread of the multiplicative process in the sphere of investment from the standpoint of its fractality. The relevance of the purpose is determined by the need for investment in the Russian economy to ensure its growth. Modeling the multiplicative process will allow to take into account its consequences as part of the results of large investment projects, as well as to actively manage multiplicative processes, enhancing or decreasing the rates of economic growth with their help. The objective of the article is to form a model that describes the internal components of the multiplicative process interaction with the investment accelerator. The article forms the hypothesis that the main stages of this process are self-similar, therefore, the process is fractal. This model has the following scientific novelty. (1) With the help of schemes of income's multiplicative transfer chains, the fractality of both these chains themselves and the process of their amplification by the investment multiplier is substantiated. (2) The proposed model is based on the description of the internal components of the multiplicative process's spread in the sphere of investment, which distinguishes it from regression or matrix models for determining the value of the investment multiplier. (3) As a result of modeling the stages of the multiplicative process in the sphere of investment, a formula for the investment multiplier was derived, taking into account the action of the investment accelerator. (4) The carried out practical calculations made it possible to determine the difference in the values of the investment multiplier for different regions of Russia. This, in turn, made it possible to theoretically substantiate the use of the difference in the values of regional multipliers, based on the difference in the structures of regional economies, as a basis for a tool for managing the Russian economy by identifying existing potential growth points and creating new ones. The proposed modeling, by taking into account the consequences of the multiplicative process spread when calculating the effectiveness of large investment projects, will increase the implementation of these projects predictability and reduce the risk of negative consequences.