Temporal Observations of Crime Dynamics

Abstract

The study of crime dynamics is a vital element of its criminological analysis. At the same time, crime dynamics is hardly recognized as an independent research problem. The traditional approach consists of extending the period of observation over crime statistics and mainly results in the increase of the representative value of data on the current state of criminality; it does not, however, help to identify its criminologically relevant trends — long-term regularities and deviations from them. This problem could be solved by a methodological synthesis of the opportunities presented by criminology and history, and the development of historical criminology on their basis, viewed as an independent trend in the scientific research of crime. Modern crime, however «modern» might be interpreted, should be understood not as an object within arbitrarily chosen time limits, but as one of the fragments of the general development of criminality as a never-ending social process. The boundaries of the concept “modern crime” should be determined based on the research of criminality itself going as far back as it is possible. Inclusion of modern criminality in the general logic of this process, and, most importantly, understanding this logic is the primary task for a criminologist studying the issues of crime dynamics. Unfortunately, it should be stated that the interpretation of crime dynamics does not have any rigid theoretical basis and is not represented as an independent theoretical concept in criminology. The attempts to interpret crime dynamics through references to criminogenic and anti-criminogenic factors, the extension of the range of known facts do not bring any new understanding because they explain the genesis, but not the trends of crime. To study the trends, understand the causes of their formation and the reasons why criminality deviates from them, to recognize some or other change in criminality as a long-term trend or a deviation, it is necessary to turn to social and, often, non-criminological factors more connected with the spheres of sociology and history.