The Methodology of Assessing the Criminogenity of Administrative Territorial Units

Abstract

The authors study the issues of applying mathematical methods to the assessment of the criminogenic levels in administrative-territorial units of the Republic of Kazakhstan. They have analyzed a considerable volume of statistical information for the past 20 years and, as a result, have identified the highest and the lowest number of registered crimes. Several indices were used to develop an index of criminogenity (ranging) of regions: crime level, graveness of crimes, size of population in a certain area. They recommend to define the public danger of crimes as a numerical value expressed in abstract units - points - based on the average sanctions, an average punishment imposed by a court and an average rating assigned by experts (researchers, practical specialists). The authors have studied modern Kazakh and foreign publications on the use of mathematical methods in criminology. The results of assessment according to three methods of ranging - legislative (legal), court, and expert - are presented in the tables. There is a correlation between legislative (legal) and court assessments. Calculations were used to determine the criminal status of some territorial units, which makes it possible to compare the number of crimes and the degree of their public danger for the population in the over-16 age group. In order to analyze the administrative-territorial units of the same type, the cities have been grouped according to the size of population. The presented methodology is reflected in the spectral scale on the «Map of Criminal Infringements» of the Committee for Legal Statistics and Special Records of the Prosecutor Generals Office for the Republic of Kazakhstan; it takes into account the distribution of cities into four groups which, in the end, will make it possible to obtain a maximally objective assessment of the criminal situation and to take preventive measures.