Simulation of Agricultural Production under the Influence of Climatic, Environmental, and Biological Events

Abstract

The paper presents mathematical models for optimizing the production of agricultural products in terms of losses from climatic, environmental and biological events. Three models of linear programming under uncertainty are considered. The first model of parametric programming makes it possible to optimize the production of agricultural products, taking into account climatic events. Events are obtained based on the analysis of significant “multilevel” trends for a series of different characteristics of the model, describing all levels, as well as their upper (maximum) and lower (minimum) levels. This division of the series is based on work [1], in which the long-term series of river flow is considered in the form of a “system of levels”, which represent a “hierarchical structure”. The second parametric programming model describes agricultural production for environmentally unfavorable conditions and the impact of climatic events. In this model, soil and water pollutants and erosion processes are considered as ecological characteristics. The model can be used to optimize the production of crop and livestock products and their combination. The third model with probabilistic estimates reflects the situation of optimizing the production of agricultural products with losses associated with locust pests. In this model, the probabilistic estimates are crop yields and losses of crop on lands affected by pests invasion. Examples of solving applied extreme problems are given, which describe situations of production in adverse conditions.