Affiliation:
1. Irkutsk State Agricultural University named after A.A. Ezhevsky
Abstract
The article presents multi-stage parametric programming models, the characteristics of which depend on time and seasonality. The first model took into account the impact on the yield of agricultural crops of predecessors. In the second model, related to the distribution of sales of products by seasons, at the first stage, a point and interval forecast of the task parameters is carried out, at the second stage, optimal coefficients are determined that characterize the volume of sales of crop products depending on the season. Then, based on the obtained forecasts and optimal coefficients, the parametric programming problem is solved. The described tasks are implemented on real objects of the Irkutsk region. Logistic and asymptotic dependences are used to predict crop yields, and the price trend is a seasonal model. It should be noted that the presented models can be refined with the help of expert assessments, which will improve the adequacy of planning the activities of agricultural producers.
Funder
Russian Science Foundation
Reference12 articles.
1. Ivanyo Ya.M., Polkovskaya M.N., Sinitsyn M.N. Planning Agricultur¬al Production Taking into Account the Timeliness of Sowings and Predecessors of Agricultural Crops. Climate, Ecology, Agriculture of Euroasia. Materials of the 11th International Scientific and Practical Conference, Irkutsk, April 28–29, 2022. Molodezhny, 2022, pp. 159–166. (In Russian). EDN: IKRNDC.
2. Brankatschk G., Finkbeiner M. Modeling Crop Rotation in Agricultural LCAs Challenges and Potential Solutions. Agricultural Systems, 2015, vol. 138, pp. 66–76.
3. Capitanescu F., Marvuglia A., Navarrete G., Benetto E. Multi-stage Farm Management Optimization under Environmental and Crop Rotation Constraints. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, vol. 147, pp. 197–205. DOI 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.01.076
4. Ivano Ya.M., Asalkhanov P.G., Barsukova M.N. [et al.]; Ivano Ya.M. (ed.). Mathematical and Digital Technologies for Optimizing Food Production. Molodezhny, Irkutsk State Agrarian University named after A.A. Yezhevsky Publ., 2021. 220 p. EDN: OOVACG.
5. Cai R., Mullen J.D., Wetzstein M.E., Bergstrom J.C. The Impacts of Crop Yield and Price Volatility on Producers Cropping Patterns: A Dynamic Optimal Crop Rotation Model. Agricultural Systems, 2013, vol. 116, pp. 52–59.