Stochastic Excitation-Incorporated Seismic Fragility Assessment Using Monte Carlo Simulations

Abstract

Structures are susceptible to damage from natural disasters like tornadoes, floods, and seismic events. A resilient structure can withstand such damage and ensure cost-effectiveness. Therefore, accurately assessing the probability of structural failure is imperative for structural designers. This study employs an innovative fragility methodology to assess seismic damage in structures. In comparison to conventional fragility approaches, this method is cost-effective, universally applicable across various seismic sources, and highly precise. Specifically, this method involves the generation of artificial seismic records using the point-source stochastic seismological model and Monte Carlo simulation method. These synthetic seismic records offer distinct advantages when compared to the seismic data collected from real earthquakes at recording stations, such as the ability to adjust the epicentral distance of the synthetic waves as needed. Therefore, this approach enables a comprehensive analysis of structural responses under seismic waves characterized by different attributes. For example, the influence of different seismological parameters such as wave magnitude and epicentral distance are well studied and compared. The advanced finite element software, OpenSees, serves as the computational platform for examining how structures react to diverse seismic waves. The research findings suggest that, compared to traditional methods, utilizing OpenSees can significantly enhance computational efficiency. Furthermore, the methods employed introduce a novel technique for factoring in wave magnitudes and distances during the calculation of structural seismological responses/fragility. This innovation holds significance for the development of next-generation structural resilience designs.