Research of risk factors for tanker navigation in the seaport area

Abstract

The article is aimed at identifying, systematizing and analyzing risk factors to improve the safety of tanker navigation in the seaport waters. The article discusses methods of risk assessment and risk management when planning tanker navigation in the port area. The author proposes a classification of risk factors for tanker navigation in the seaport water area into five classes: class of risks regarding the structure of the port and its water area; class of risks regarding hydrometeorological factors; class of risks regarding ship controllability; class of risks regarding technical means and methods of navigation; class of risks regarding the navigation management system in the port water area. It is proposed to quantify the described risks using safety factors. These safety factors are obtained based on expert assessments that reflect the complexity of the analyzed operations, which corresponds to the accepted approaches in maritime shipping. Considering the methods of intuitive hazard assessment already developed in practice, the safety factors (for each risk factor) are determined through a step function. The most significant scientific result is the creation of a unified approach to quantification for all risk factors considered and the construction of a risk factor tree for tanker navigation in the seaport area. This is the basis for the next stage of assessing the coefficient of navigational safety of navigation in the port area and developing a comprehensive risk analysis model. Thus, an analysis of possible risks associated with the impact of various factors on the safety of tanker navigation in the seaport waters was carried out. These risks cover a wide range of influences, including the structure of the port and port waters, the impact of hydrometeorological factors, ship characteristics and its controllability, as well as the organization of control and management of ship traffic in port waters. The developed methodology for quantifying the identified risks made it possible to calculate the coefficients of navigation safety for specific areas and the entire port area. The peculiarities of the proposed approaches to risk assessment and the methodology presented can be key tools for determining the level of navigation safety and making informed decisions when navigating ships within ports and can contribute to a more accurate analysis of risks and the impact of various factors on navigation safety