Inflation Targeting Experience: Lessons for Ukraine

Abstract

In the past three decades, many advanced market and emerging market economies have modernized their monetary policy frameworks. We research the experience of these economies for lessons relevant to the monetary policy in Ukraine, which has recently embarked on a similar modernization program. Most countries we study have adopted some form of inflation targeting, given unfavorable experiences with previous regimes based on money and exchange rate, however with the exchange rate continuing to play an important role. Most of the pillars of effective IT monetary policy developed over time through determined efforts led by central banks, and the initial conditions did not matter for success. Countries have experienced numerous challenges with regards to communication, credibility, policy transmission, and fiscal dominance. Overcoming these challenges gave rise to new practices, which now form the stateof- the art monetary policy, irrespective of whether it is called an IT regime. A general lesson for Ukraine (as well as other future modernizers and IT adopters) is that determination and speed in building the pillars of IT policy is paramount for success and credibility of the new framework.