Affiliation:
1. National Bank of Ukraine
Abstract
The article was devoted to the research of possibilities to use Business Outlook Survey results, which are carried out by National Bank of Ukraine, for the short-term forecasting of economic development, in particular, the Gross Domestic Product of Ukraine. The different methods of building of the leading index of economic development, their advantages, and their restrictions are examined. The choice of the best index, which provides for the higher accuracy of forecasting the GDP, is carried out with the use of econometric models.
Reference20 articles.
1. Banerjee, A., Marcellino, M., Masten, I. (2003). Leading indicators for euro-area inflation and GDP growth. IGIER Working Paper, 235.
2. Bascos-Deveza, T. (2011). Quantifying qualitative data from expectation surveys: how well do expectation surveys forecast inflation? IFC Bulletin, 34, 128-137. Bank for International Settlements. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/ifc/publ/ifcb34k.pdf
3. Burkart, O., Coudert, V. (2000). Leading indicators of currency crises in emerging economies. Banque de France, 74.
4. Cesaroni, T. (2010). Estimating potential output using business survey data in a SVAR framework. Economics Bulletin, 30(3), 2249-2258. Retrieved from http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2010/Volume30/EB-10-V30-I3-P206.pdf
5. Chamberlin, G. (2007). Forecasting GDP using external data sources. Economic & Labour Market Review, 1(8), 18-23.
Cited by
2 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献