Consumer Lending in Ukraine: Estimation of the Equilibrium Level-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Consumer Lending in Ukraine: Estimation of the Equilibrium Level

Published:2020-06-30 Issue:249 Volume: Page:04-12
ISSN:2414-987X
Container-title:Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine
language:en
Short-container-title:VNBU

Author:

Csajbok Attila¹,Dadashova Pervin²^ORCID,Shykin Pavlo²,Vonnak Balazs³

Affiliation:

1. International Monetary Fund

2. National Bank of Ukraine

3. Magyar Nemzeti Bank

Abstract

In line with Kiss et. al (2006), we have constructed an analytical framework for the timely detection of risks connected with the rapid growth of consumer lending, based on an econometric model for the equilibrium level of household and consumer loans. Results from an estimation on a panel of countries were extrapolated to the Ukrainian banking sector. The model suggests that after two waves of strong deleveraging starting in 2009 and in 2014, the consumer credit stock in 2019 is still well below its equilibrium level in Ukraine, despite the recent strong nominal dynamics.

Publisher

National Bank of Ukraine

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