Priorities, opportunities, and challenges for integrating microorganisms into Earth system models for climate change prediction

Author:

Lennon J. T.1ORCID,Abramoff R. Z.23,Allison S. D.45,Burckhardt R. M.6ORCID,DeAngelis K. M.7,Dunne J. P.8,Frey S. D.9,Friedlingstein P.10,Hawkes C. V.11,Hungate B. A.12ORCID,Khurana S.13,Kivlin S. N.14,Levine N. M.15,Manzoni S.13,Martiny A. C.4ORCID,Martiny J. B. H.4ORCID,Nguyen N. K.6,Rawat M.16,Talmy D.17,Todd-Brown K.18,Vogt M.19,Wieder W. R.2021,Zakem E. J.22

Affiliation:

1. Department of Biology, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA

2. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA

3. Ronin Institute, Montclair, New Jersey, USA

4. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Irvine, Irvine, California, USA

5. Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, California, USA

6. American Society for Microbiology, Washington, DC, USA

7. Department of Microbiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA

8. NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA

9. Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire, USA

10. College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom

11. Department of Plant and Microbial Biology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

12. Department of Biological Sciences, Center for Ecosystem Science, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA

13. Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

14. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA

15. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA

16. National Science Foundation, Washington, DC, USA

17. Department of Microbiology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA

18. Department of Environmental Engineering Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA

19. Institute for Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland

20. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

21. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

22. Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, California, USA

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change jeopardizes human health, global biodiversity, and sustainability of the biosphere. To make reliable predictions about climate change, scientists use Earth system models (ESMs) that integrate physical, chemical, and biological processes occurring on land, the oceans, and the atmosphere. Although critical for catalyzing coupled biogeochemical processes, microorganisms have traditionally been left out of ESMs. Here, we generate a “top 10” list of priorities, opportunities, and challenges for the explicit integration of microorganisms into ESMs. We discuss the need for coarse-graining microbial information into functionally relevant categories, as well as the capacity for microorganisms to rapidly evolve in response to climate-change drivers. Microbiologists are uniquely positioned to collect novel and valuable information necessary for next-generation ESMs, but this requires data harmonization and transdisciplinary collaboration to effectively guide adaptation strategies and mitigation policy.

Funder

National Science Foundation

DOD | USA | AFC | CCDC | ARO | Life Sciences Division, Army Research Office

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

EC | European Research Council

Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung

Publisher

American Society for Microbiology

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