Prediction of Unbound Ceftriaxone Concentration in Children: Simple Bioanalysis Method and Basic Mathematical Equation

Abstract

The pharmacological activity of ceftriaxone depends on the unbound concentration. However, direct measurement of unbound concentrations is obstructive, and high individual variability of the unbound fraction of ceftriaxone was shown in children. We aim to evaluate and validate a method to predict unbound ceftriaxone concentrations in pediatric patients. Ninety-five pairs of concentrations (total and unbound) from 92 patients were measured by the bioanalysis method that we developed. The predictive performance of the three equations (empirical in vivo equation, disease-adapted equation, and multiple linear regression equation) was assessed by the mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), the mean prediction error (MPE), the proportions of the prediction error within ±30% ( P 30 ) and ±50% ( P 50 ), and linear regression of predicted versus actual unbound levels ( R 2 ).