Ostatni będą pierwszymi? LNG w polityce energetycznej Rosji

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to analyze the current condition and development prospects for the Russian LNG sector. Taking into account the specifics of the functioning of the Russian state, the author chose the realistic paradigm (neoclassical realism), which is useful in the context of showing the relationship between internal structures and external activity of the state. The author argues that Russian expansion in the LNG sector is the result of the lobbying capacity of Novatek – the largest private gas producer in Russia. Although the state budget incurs significant costs related to the implementation of Novatek projects, in particular due to fiscal preferences, it also achieves the possibility of achieving the objectives in external and internal energy policy. Novatek’s expansion increases Russia’s share in external energy markets; at the same time LNG expansion, it is used for internal purposes. Novatek’s dominant position in the LNG sector is confirmed by both already implemented projects and plans for further expansion. The factors favoring Russian expansion are constant state support for Novatek projects, high level of internationalization of implemented projects and favorable forecasts on energy markets. The strong competition between currently dominant LNG producers and the risk of internal competition between Russian exporters are among the key long-term challenges.