Modelling the impact of manufacturability and import dependence on the efficiency of the processing industry of Ukraine

Abstract

The article aims to model the processing industry of Ukraine in the direction of increasing its economic efficiency according to the criteria of manufacturability and self-sufficiency (i.e. reducing import dependence). The regularities of the impact of technology and import dependence on the functional efficiency of the economy’s industrial sector are revealed. The authors’ hypothesis that higher economic efficiency in processing is explained by its greater focus on high-tech processes and production with a greater degree of the processing of raw materials, as well as a lower level of dependence on imported components, has been empirically proven. With the help of correlation-regression analysis, dependence between change in structural parameters (the share of high- and medium-high-tech industries in terms of output and the share of imports for intermediate consumption) and efficiency (the share of GVA in output) is substantiated. Deterministic economic-mathematical models (solved by linear programming) for optimising output and GVA in the processing industry and intermediate consumption were built according to the criteria of increasing manufacturability and reducing import dependence, both towards increasing efficiency. Such intermediate consumption (in terms of imported and domestic components of costs) was modelled, under which the indicator of the share of GVA of Ukraine would correspond to the level in Poland. The optimised data obtained form the basis for strategic planning, as they show what the output (by manufacturability) and intermediate consumption should be to ensure the desired level of economic efficiency of the Ukrainian processing industry.