Methodical approaches and statistical analysis of tourist arrivals to the centers of sightseeing tourism (on the example of Chernivtsi, Ukraine)

Abstract

The aim of the study is to define methodological approaches and methods of statistical analysis of arrivals to the centers of excursion tourism. In destinations with highly appealing attractions or objects, accurately accounting for the number of tourists visiting them is crucial. In Chernivtsi, such an attraction or object is the former Residence of the Bukovinian Metropolitans, a UNESCO monument. The statistical analysis traces the dynamics of the number of excursion visitors to the former Residence. It identifies the factors that influenced it, including the inclusion of the site in the UNESCO list, Russian aggression since 2014, and the COVID‑19 pandemic. Based on the statistical reporting data analysis of the Historical and Architectural Museum Complex of Chernivtsi National University, three periods of excursion activity from 2000–2021 were identified. The first period (2000–2017) is characterized by rapid growth due to the inclusion of the former Residence in UNESCO. The second period (2017–2019) is a period of stagnation of excursion activity with minor fluctuations. The hypothesis and data analysis confirmed the thesis that the occupation of Crimea by Russia had an impact on the redistribution of tourist flows, particularly during the May holidays, within Ukraine, specifically in Chernivtsi. The third period (2019–2020), characterized by a sharp decline followed by the same dynamic growth (2020–2021), was caused by a force majeure event of global proportions – the COVID‑19 pandemic.