Evaluation of Opening Offers Early for Deceased Donor Kidneys at Risk of Nonutilization

Abstract

Background Reducing nonutilization of kidneys recovered from deceased donors is a current policy concern for kidney allocation in the United States. The likelihood of nonutilization is greater with a higher kidney donor risk index (KDRI) offer. We examine how opening offers for organs with KDRI >1.75 to the broader waitlist at varying points of time affects usage rates. Methods We simulate kidney allocation using data for January 2018 to June 2019 from Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. For the simulation experiment, allocation policy is modified so that KDRI >1.75 organs are offered to all local candidates (same donation service area) after a set amount of cold time simultaneously. Open offers to candidates nationally are similarly examined. Results Simulation results (n=50 replications) estimate that opening offers locally for KDRI >1.75 after 10 hours yields a nonutilization rate of 38% (range: 35%–42%), less than the prevailing rate of 55% of KDRI >1.75 kidneys. Opening offers after 5 hours yields 30% (range: 26%–34%), reducing the prevailing nonutilization rate by 45%. Opening offers nationally after 10 and 5 hours yields nonutilization rates of 11% (range: 8%–15%) and 6% (range: 4%–9%) for KDRI >1.75 kidneys, respectively. Conclusions Simulation findings indicate that opening offers and adjusting their timing can significantly reduce nonutilization of high-KDRI kidneys.