The Gulf Monarchies’ Vision of the Global Order Transformations and the Russian Place in It

Abstract

With the processes of the global order transformations currently unfolding and new rising powers gaining influence in the international arena, the issue of possible contours of a new architecture of the world system is becoming more urgent. The three Gulf monarchies – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar – in recent years have been re-evaluating their relations with world powers, re-establishing their international positioning, and strengthening their capabilities in active engagement in the process of a new world order shaping as their foreign policies and national interests have been increasingly stretching far beyond the Gulf and the MENA region. They have gained confidence in asserting and defending their interests and standing up to pressure, willing to seize the initiative in forming the regional security system and strongly participate in the shaping of the global world order, which they see as polycentric and “non-polar”. After the decade of intraregional confrontations and rivalries in the 2010s, they have come to realize that in order for their ambitious socioeconomic development strategies to succeed, they require a “stable and prosperous” Middle East based on cooperation between all the key regional players with none of them dominating but counterbalancing each other, while external actors are considered important partners for cooperation on the agenda set by the regional powers provided that they counterbalance each other’s influence and do not try to exert their dominance. The three Gulf monarchies see Russia as an influential center of power in the shaping polycentric world order as well as a partner with whom they need to coordinate to ensure stability in the region and cement their global influence in the world oil markets. The Ukrainian crisis has not had any negative effect on the monarchies’ approaches towards relations with Russia and even strengthened their conviction in the correctness of their regional and global policy course.