Transformation of the EU Political Party System on the Eve of the 2024 European Election

Abstract

The article analyzes the main trends in the transformation of the political party system of the European Union on the eve of the next European Parliament election, which will be held in June 2024. Long-term trends include: a decrease in the popularity of traditional political parties – conservatives, social democrats and liberals – in most EU member states; an increase in electoral support for populist parties in the same countries; an increase in the representation of women in EU authorities; strengthening the pan-European political space, which leads to deepened impact of EU political institutions on the political systems of EU member states, etc. Relatively new trends in the transformation of this system are: growing popularity and influence of Eurosceptic parties both in individual European countries and in the European Union as a whole; political conflict between the EU and its member states – Poland and Hungary which violate European democratic principles, including the rule of law with respect to the rights of citizens and the independence of the judicial branch of government. The author scrutinises the influence of changes in the socio-class structure of European society on these processes, which occur partly owing to a visible reduction in the number of the industrial proletariat. It is noted that the consequences of these changes are the destruction of the boundary between the traditional right and left parties, and the death of many classical ideological categories. The study also presents the forecast of results of the leading pan-European political parties’ participation in the 2024 European election, made by a number of European non-governmental organizations and mainstream media holdings following public opinion polls, as well as their possible impact on the formation of a new composition of the European Parliament and the European Commission.