World Financial System: Globalization or Deglobalization?

Abstract

The paper investigates the current phases of world financial system’s (WFS) development that was identified on the base of Obstfeld-Taylor index describing international capital movement. It is shown that in order to differentiate the main periods of WFS life-cycle one should investigate the first and the second waves of financial globalization. The respective analysis mainly includes comparison of financial deglobalization/globalization process evidences in the wake of global financial crises. On the one hand, almost all global financial markets (except global currency market) demonstrated downturns and/or sharp slowdowns in overall performance during 2007-2009. For example, global banking demonstrated the “flight home” effect. On the other hand, the author consolidated the analysis of the pre-crisis and 2010-2014 financial data, geographical changes in global credit market, global currency market’s dynamics during 2004-2013, shadow banking and VIX-index trends, initiatives on global financial reforms. This showed that the financial world is not becoming deglobalized in medium-term perspective. Moreover, according to author’s research, financial globalization currently undergoes a deep systemic transformation, including a wider geography of its main driving forces. Still, it is not excluded that deglobalization trend is possible in a long-run perspective because of global financial crisis lasting since 2007, persistence of “contagion effect” and deeply linked multiple financial bubbles in the world financial system, high volatility of financial and some other markets. It is supposed that once started processes of deglobalization can be immediately transferred from financial sphere to the world economy. Finally, author outlines necessary conditions for continuing evolutionary financial globalization process. Acknowledgements. The article was prepared with support of the grant of Russian Fund for Humanities (Project № 15-02-00391 “Russian monetary and budgetary policy during current phase of global economic development”).