Russia-Japan Relations in Crisis: What are the Reasons?

Abstract

The article analyzes the impact of the escalation of Ukrainian crisis since February 2022 on Russia-Japan relations by looking into the policy of Japan’s Fumio Kishida administration and the response of the Russian government. It strives to answer the question of what are the drivers behind Japan’s hardline policy and to this goal looks into the reasons for the deterioration of bilateral relations even before 2022. The paper demonstrates that Japan’s harsh policy response in line with its ally the U.S. and G7 partners has prompted Russia’s negative reaction, with Moscow “punishing” Japan by refusing to continue negotiations on the key priority issue for Tokyo, i.e. peace treaty and territorial dispute. Japan’s sanctions regime is the toughest among the non-Western states. A number of factors explain Japan’s policy: negative attitude towards ex-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s engagement policy towards Russia seen as a failure due to the lack of breakthrough in the territorial issue, traditionally negative perception of Russia due to the “northern territories”, little support in Suga and Kishida administrations towards further engagement with Moscow, negative attitude towards expanding Russia-China military cooperation, solidarity with G7 partners, perception about the possibility of the same actions by China in the Indo-Pacific regarding Taiwan and territorial disputes, pacifist sentiments, negative media coverage and relative insignificance of Russia as an export destination for Japanese companies. As a result, the relations are at the lowest point in the last three decades, with political and security contacts as well as the operation of many businesses suspended. Rapprochement is over as Russia-Japan relations have proved to be a hostage of Russia’s conflict with the U.S. and Europe. A negative scenario envisioning an exacerbating security dilemma between Russia and Japan if realized is poised to damage the security of both states.