TOPOVI ALI MASLO? PRIMERJALNA ANALIZA OBRAMBNIH IZDATKOV REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE

Abstract

Povzetek Javnofinančne posledice gospodarske krize so večino držav članic zveze Nato vodile v bistveno zmanjšanje obrambnih izdatkov. Analiza je razkrila, da so v obdobju 2009–2015 obrambni izdatki Republike Slovenije padli najbolj med vsemi zaveznicami, ob tem pa je Slovenijo zaradi naraščajočega deleža izdatkov za osebje začela bremeniti vse bolj neuravnotežena struktura obrambne porabe. V prispevku sem potrdil domnevo o neustreznem kadrovskem obsegu slovenskih oboroženih sil glede na razpoložljive finančne vire. Analizo sem zasnoval na teoretično podkrepljeni premisi o vzročni povezanosti spremenljivk. S pomočjo bivariatne analize sem potrdil visoko pozitivno korelacijo med višino obrambnih izdatkov za osebje in kadrovskim obsegom oboroženih sil ter prek regresijske analize izsledke apliciral na načrtovano stanje slovenskega obrambnega sistema leta 2020. Ob tem sem ugotovil, da je neskladje med finančnimi viri in kadrovskim obsegom implicirano tudi v trenutno veljavnem srednjeročnem obrambnem programu in da doseganje kadrovskih in strukturno-finančnih ciljev ob predvideni stopnji rasti obrambnih izdatkov ni realno uresničljivo. Ključne besede Obrambni izdatki, izdatki za osebje, kadrovski obseg oboroženih sil, Slovenska vojska, bivariatna analiza. Abstract The effects of the financial crisis on public finances have led to significant reductions in defence spending in the majority of NATO member states. As revealed by the analysis of 2009–2015, the largest drop in defence expenditure occurred in the Republic of Slovenia, where a rising share of expenditure devoted to personnel led to an increased imbalance in the allocation of defence resources. In the article, I confirmed the hypothesis on inappropriate personnel strength of the Slovenian Armed Forces with regard to its financial resources. I designed the analysis on a theoretically supported premise about a causal relationship between variables. A bivariate analysis confirmed a strong positive correlation between the level of personnel expenditure and the overall personnel strength. Furthermore, I used a regression analysis to form an estimate on a 2020 desired end-state based on the acquired results. I concluded that the discrepancy between financial resources and the personnel strength is implied in the Medium-Term Defence Programme as well. I therefore assessed the currently valid medium term staff and financial structure goals as realistically unattainable. Key words Defence expenditure, personnel expenditure, armed forces personnel strength, Slovenian Armed Forces, bivariate analysis.