Modeling Post-Earthquake Functionality of Regional Health Care Facilities

Abstract

This study introduces a methodology for anticipating the post-earthquake functionality of hospitals in a region. Performance levels for interacting systems (structural, nonstructural, lifeline, and personnel) in a hospital are operationally defined, empirically correlated, and probabilistically modeled using damage data from past earthquakes. Separate models are developed for buildings built before and after the 1973 California Hospital Seismic Safety Act. Performance estimates of the systems are used to anticipate overall hospital functionality. Effects of external power and water outage are also included. As a case study, the methodology is utilized to predict the functionality of hospitals in Los Angeles County for two earthquake scenarios. Findings indicate that in a M6.9 Verdugo fault earthquake scenario, nearly half of county hospitals have at least a 50% chance of experiencing significant loss of functionality. Such findings can support emergency response planning as well as seismic retrofit prioritization.