Earthquake Mitigation Decisions and Consequences

Abstract

A primary aim of recent earthquake engineering research has been to integrate analyses of social and technical systems, to take into account the potential consequences of earthquakes for society as a whole. In some cases the resulting decision frameworks treat acceptable consequences and risks as fixed objectives. This paper describes the rationale for abandoning a priori assessment of the acceptability of earthquake consequences as conceived in consequence-based engineering (CBE). Support for an alternative approach comes from behavioral and policy research including an examination of seismic retrofit decision processes for U.S. General Services Administration-owned federal buildings. Additional review of research on earthquake mitigation policy making at the local government level also supports the case. We then suggest dynamic decision structuring that would better support the integration of engineering expertise and decision makers’ preferences.