Developing Empirical Collapse Fragility Functions for Global Building Types

Abstract

Building collapse is the dominant cause of casualties during earthquakes. In order to better predict human fatalities, the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program requires collapse fragility functions for global building types. The collapse fragility is expressed as the probability of collapse at discrete levels of the input hazard defined in terms of macroseismic intensity. This article provides a simple procedure for quantifying collapse fragility using vulnerability criteria based on the European Macroseismic Scale (1998) for selected European building types. In addition, the collapse fragility functions are developed for global building types by fitting the beta distribution to the multiple experts’ estimates for the same building type (obtained from EERI's World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE)-PAGER survey). Finally, using the collapse probability distributions at each shaking intensity level as a prior and field-based collapse-rate observations as likelihood, it is possible to update the collapse fragility functions for global building types using the Bayesian procedure.