The Effects of Macroeconomic Indicators on Lending Interest Rates: Evidence from BRICST, MINT, and Fragile Five Countries

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of the macroeconomic indicators on the lending interest rates in the leading emerging countries by considering the significance of the interest rates for economic growth since high-level interest rates decrease economic growth and volatile interest rates deteriorate economic stability. In this context, the lending interest rate is considered as the dependent variable; foreign exchange (FX) rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and inflation are included as the independent variables that are the main macroeconomic indicators; annual data from 1990 to 2019 are used, and the panel data analysis is applied. The empirical analysis results reveal that (i) FX rates, GDP, and inflation have a significant effect on the lending interest rates at the panel level; (ii) the significance of these macroeconomic indicators vary at the country level; (iii) GDP is the most influential factor on the lending interest rates at both panel and the country level. The analysis results underline the effects of macroeconomic factors on the lending interest rates. Therefore, countries should apply appropriate policies to lessen the adverse effects of the macroeconomic indicators on the interest rates so that economic growth can be supported by low-level lending interest rates. Hence, emerging countries can benefit from low-level lending interest rates.