Competing Risks of Cancer Mortality and Cardiovascular Events in Individuals with Multimorbidity

Abstract

Background Cancer patients with cardiovascular and other comorbidities are at concurrent risk of multiple adverse outcomes. However, most treatment decisions are guided by evidence from single-outcome models, which may be misleading for multimorbid patients. Objective We assessed the interacting effects of cancer, cardiovascular, and other morbidity burdens on the competing outcomes of cancer mortality, serious cardiovascular events, and other-cause mortality. Design We analyzed a cohort of 6,500 adults with initial cancer diagnosis between 2001 and 2008, SEER 5-year survival ≥26%, and a range of cardiovascular risk factors. We estimated the cumulative incidence of cancer mortality, a serious cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, or cardiovascular mortality), and other-cause mortality over 5 years, and identified factors associated with the competing risks of each outcome using cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models. Results Following cancer diagnosis, there were 996 (15.3%) cancer deaths, 328 (5.1%) serious cardiovascular events, and 542 (8.3%) deaths from other causes. In all, 4,634 (71.3%) cohort members had none of these outcomes. Although cancer prognosis had the greatest effect, cardiovascular and other morbidity also independently increased the hazard of each outcome. The effect of cancer prognosis on outcome was greatest in year 1, and the effect of other morbidity was greater in individuals with better cancer prognoses. Conclusion In multimorbid oncology populations, comorbidities interact to affect the competing risk of different outcomes. Quantifying these risks may provide persons with cancer plus cardiovascular and other comorbidities more accurate information for shared decision-making than risks calculated from single-outcome models.