The Impacts of Trade Liberalisation and Technological Change on GDP Growth in Indonesia: A Meta Regression Analysis

Abstract

Twelve selected studies investigating effects of trade liberalisation in Indonesia resulting in 25 point estimates are included in the Meta Regression Analysis to assess the growth-enhancing effects of trade liberalisation and technological change. Given high variation across studies, this study finds no robust evidence of the positive impacts of a tariff cut on economic growth rates. However, it finds robust evidence of the growth-enhancing effects of technological change. This study also finds that studies which are published assuming increasing return to scale, focusing on non-agricultural sectors, using pre-1997 databases and with more disaggregated sectors tend to report higher growth effects of trade liberalisation. Compared to results reported by Indonesian researchers, non-Indonesian academic researchers report lower growth effects of trade liberalisation. Overall, this study suggests that providing assistance to developing countries to improve their productivity might be a better approach to multilateral negotiations than putting pressures on these countries to remove their trade barriers.