It's the Financial Crisis, Stupid! How Framing and Competency Signals Altered the Economic Vote in the US and Germany

Abstract

Economic voting models predict a direct translation of “objective” economic conditions into voter’s preferences. These models posit that declining micro- and macroeconomic circumstances will automatically lead to a vote against the incumbent government. The 2008 financial crisis provides a valuable opportunity to test the applicability of these theories. This paper argues that the framing of the crisis and the competency signals voters received during the 2008 US and the 2009 German campaigns mediate the link between economic perceptions and the vote intention.