Ranking Risks of BOT Toll Road Investment Projects in Indonesia Using Fuzzy Interpretive Structural Modelling

Abstract

The Government of Indonesia implemented the Build, Operate, and Transfer (BOT) model, relying on private investment to bridge the financing gap in developing public infrastructure facilities, including toll roads. Toll road investments, like other greenfield infrastructure projects, are typically characterized by high project risk, which discourages private sector investment. Many previous studies have investigated the various risk events in toll road investment projects, but only a few have assessed the interrelationships of risk events in the Indonesian context. This study fills this knowledge gap by determining which risk event influences other events most. Fuzzy interpretive structural modelling combined with the matrix impact of cross-references multiplication applied to a classification method was used to determine the hierarchy of risk events and analyze their influences on other risk events. A total of fourteen risk events were identified and analyzed. An unclear output specification was found to be the most significant risk event, with the biggest driving power affecting other risks. The findings and limitations of this study point the way forward for future research.