Energy Market Prediction and Risk Assessment Based on China's Rural Collective Economy

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Energy, as a core element supporting the functioning of modern society, is vital to the development of the rural collective economy. With the upgrading of the agrarian industrial structure and the improvement of rural electrification levels, the energy demand gradually increases. Therefore, for China's rural collective economy, an in-depth study of the forecasting and risk assessment of the energy market has essential theoretical and practical value for scientific planning of resource allocation and improving energy utilization efficiency. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to reveal the development trend and key influencing factors through an in-depth analysis of China's rural collective economy's energy market and to make scientific forecasts of the future development of the energy market. At the same time, through risk assessment, it proposes risk prevention and resolution countermeasures of the energy market for the rural collective economy to provide decision support for rural energy security and sustainable development. METHODS: This study adopts a comprehensive analysis approach, combining historical data, policy literature analysis, and expert interviews. First, a comprehensive analytical framework is established by combing the development history of the rural collective economy energy market over the past few years. Second, quantitative analysis models and numerical simulations are used to analyze the key factors affecting the energy market. Finally, expert interviews are conducted to obtain the views of experts in related fields on the future development and risks of the energy market to improve the research conclusions further. RESULTS: The results of the study show that the energy market of China's rural collective economy will show a trend of gradual growth, but it also faces multiple risk challenges, including market price fluctuations, policy adjustments, and an imbalance between supply and demand. In the future, with the deepening of green energy policies, rural collective economies will pay more attention to the application of clean and renewable energy. CONCLUSION: To summarize, this study provides a scientific reference for the energy strategy decision-making of rural collective economies by forecasting and assessing the risk of the energy market based on China's rural collaborative economies. In the future, it is necessary to pay more attention to the improvement of the policy system to promote the development of green energy, as well as the establishment of a sound market regulatory mechanism to reduce the uncertainty of the energy market and provide solid support for the sustainable development of the rural collective economy.