Photovoltaic power generation prediction and optimization configuration model based on GPR and improved PSO algorithm

Abstract

As the growing demand for energy as well as the strengthening of environmental awareness, photovoltaic power generation, as a clean and renewable energy source, has gradually attracted people's attention and attention. To facilitate the dispatching and planning of power system, this study uses historical data and meteorological data to build a photovoltaic power generation prediction and configuration optimization model on the ground of Gaussian process regression and improved particle swarm optimization algorithm. The simulation results show that the regression prediction curve of the Gaussian process regression prediction model is the closest to the real curve, and the prediction curve is stable and not easily disturbed by noise data. The Root-mean-square deviation and the average absolute proportional error of the model are small, and the disparity in the predicted value and the true value of the model is small; The integration of multi factor data has improved the accuracy of prediction data, and the regression prediction effect is good. The improved Particle swarm optimization algorithm could continuously enhance in the search for the optimal solution, and the Rate of convergence is fast. The Pareto solution can provide different solutions suitable for photovoltaic power generation optimization. Reasonable optimization configuration can effectively reduce active power line loss and voltage deviation, with the maximum reduction values reaching 132kW and 0.028, respectively. The research and design of predictive models and optimized configuration models can promote the formation of smart grids.