“SLIKTRAK”—A COMPUTER SIMULATION OF OFFSHORE OIL SPILLS, CLEANUP, EFFECTS AND ASSOCIATED COSTS

Abstract

ABSTRACT The reasons are introduced for the development of a simulator sufficiently simple to enable weather data normally acquired for E & P operations to be used. “SLIKTRAK,” developed by Shell, applies a slick description and combat concept, developed within the E & P Forum for well blowouts in the North Sea, but applicable to other areas. This concept includes costs for cleanup, damages and the effect of phenomena such as evaporation and natural dispersion. These factors are based on industry experience and vary primarily with sea conditions. The computer programme simulates the continued creation of an oil spill and applies weather data to predict movements of each day's spillage for successive days at sea and quantities of oil left after each day until the oil either disappears or reaches a coastline. Cumulative probability curves for the oil volumes cleaned up, oil arriving at specified shores, total costs, etc., are produced by random selection of input variables such as well location, weather data, the possibility of well bridging etc., and repetition of simulated spill incidents over a large number of cycles. Trace-plots of individual spills may also be generated. In association with the E & P Forum's position as technical advisers to the North West European Civil Liability Convention for Oil Pollution Damage from Offshore Operations, a study based on the North Sea areas has been made. These results and further developments of the program are discussed.